What Is xG in Soccer and How Is It Calculated
Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of scoring chances in soccer by assigning each shot a probability of resulting in a goal based on historical data and shot characteristics like distance, angle, and body part used.
Probability per shot
Each shot receives an xG value between 0 and 1 representing its likelihood of becoming a goal.
Based on shot quality
xG accounts for distance, angle, assist type, and whether the shot came from open play or a set piece.
Team and player view
Summing xG across a match shows whether a team created better chances than the opponent.
What xG captures
- Shot distance and angle to the goal
- Body part used: foot, header, or other
- Assist type: through ball, cross, set piece, or rebound
- Game state: open play vs set piece context
xG components
- Shot distance
- Shot angle
- Body part
- Assist type
Why xG matters
xG tells you more than goal count alone. A team that scores 1 goal from 0.8 xG was clinical, while a team scoring 1 from 3.2 xG underperformed. xG reveals whether results reflect chance quality or finishing luck, making it essential for post-match evaluation and player assessment.
BuildUp approach
- Per-shot xG values
- Team-level xG totals
- Video-linked shots
- API-accessible
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